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Shaded-relief map of Likely, California: rivers, roads, the city limits and where the water drains.
CALIFORNIA · MODOC COUNTY

Likely

58 people, 4,450 ft above sea level in Modoc County.

4,450 ftElevation, city center
58People, 2024 estimate
1 sq miLand area
Sunny 49°
Sunny now Dew point 31° · S 10 mph · high 46°
City of Likely River Interstate 2 miles
Explore the plate Order a print

The Likely plate. Relief from Copernicus GLO-30; rivers and lakes from USGS NHD; watersheds from the USGS Watershed Boundary Dataset; roads and city limits from Census TIGER 2024.

MILE1
TODAY

Today in Likely

NWS forecast and National Blend of Models · updated 3:00 PM PST
RIGHT NOW Alturas (KAAT) · 2:55 PM
Sunny
49° Sunny Feels like 45° · high of 46° near 3 PM
WindS 10 mphno gusts
Humidity50%rising to 82% by morning
Pressure29.91 in →steady
Visibility10 mihaze-free
CloudsClear
UV index—no forecast
Dew point 31° · Dry21° by Tuesday: drier air arrives
DryComfortableStickyMuggyOppressive
NEXT RAIN
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow, about 11 AMin about 19 hours · 40% chance · rain
LIKELY AMOUNT0.3–0.9 inmost likely 0.6; 1 in 10 over 1.2
LAST RAINNov. 30.15 in · 11 dry days
ALERTS & OUTLOOKS
No watches or warnings for Modoc County
NWS Medford and the Storm Prediction Center · checked 3:45 PM
SUN & MOON
↑ 6:48 AM4:44 PM ↓
9 h 55 m of daylight, 2 minutes less than yesterday
Waxing crescent, 26% lit. Next full moon: Nov. 24.
AIR & POLLEN
0
GOODAir quality index · fine particles
No pollen source yet.

The next three days, hour by hour

Sky: clear, cloudy, night Rain likely National Blend of Models
SATURDAY, NOV. 14
SUNDAY, NOV. 15
MONDAY, NOV. 16
TUESDAY, NOV. 17
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
partly cloudy day
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
rain
showers day
rain
showers day
partly cloudy night
partly cloudy night
partly cloudy night
partly cloudy night
mostly cloudy day
partly cloudy day
mostly sunny
TEMPERATURE °F
46°
35°
48°
31°
42°
23°
CHANCE OF RAIN
90% · 0.29 in Sunday evening 50%
WIND, MPH
14
10
16
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6
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HOW IT FEELS · DEW POINT
Dry: dew points 28 to 31° ↑ Humid air returns Drier: 23° by Tuesday

The next seven days, and how sure we are

Forecast, with the range 8 in 10 ensemble members agree on Normal, about 52° / 25°
SAT Nov. 14 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
46° 26°
0% rain — SSW 14, gusts 33 A
SUN Nov. 15 Showers likely Showers likely
49° 25°
90% rain 0.3–0.9″ S 15, gusts 33 B
MON Nov. 16 Showers likely Showers likely
44° 16°
80% rain up to 0.3″ W 3 B
TUE Nov. 17 Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
43° 19°
10% rain — SW 6 B
WED Nov. 18 Showers likely Showers likely
42° 18°
80% rain 0.2–0.6″ SSE 10 A
THU Nov. 19 Showers likely Showers likely
41° 15°
60% rain up to 0.3″ SSW 2 C
FRI Nov. 20 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
40° 14°
20% rain — SSW 5 C
How sure are we? AModels agree: highs within 4° BSome spread: within 8° CWide spread: check back
Range from the National Blend of Models percentiles · graded on Forecast Scores
AIR MAIL

Where today’s air came from

The air arriving over Likely about 5,000 feet above the ground was over the California coast three days ago, about 390 miles back along its path. It came down from about 15,100 feet up, warming and drying as it sank. It has stayed over land, which is why it feels dry. Traced back 72 hours through NOAA’s hourly RAP analyses, nine paths at each of three heights.

THIS WEEK IN 2008 Nov. 17, 2008

The hottest this week has been

78° on Nov. 17, 2008, the hottest reading for this week of the year since 1948. Next is 72° in 1990.

72°
78°
19902008
Source: NOAA RCC-ACIS, the Jess Valley record since 1948.
MILE2
THE GROUND

What Likely stands on

Likely’s center stands about 4,450 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 4,390 ft to 4,930 ft, a difference of 540 ft: hilly country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is Bald Mountain, about 7,680 ft, 14 miles east.

Under the town center the state geologic map shows Quaternary alluvium and marine deposits (coarse-detrital), from the Pleistocene to Holocene, less than 2.6 million years old.

The section below crosses 4 rock units mapped at the surface.

Likely, cut in half from south to north

A section south to north, 24 miles through the town center
5,000 ft6,000 ft LIKELY4,450 ftTule Mountain7,070 ftSouth Fork Pit Riverabout 4,360 ft ← SN →

Heights every 0.1 mile from the Copernicus GLO-90 surface model; vertical exaggeration about 7×. The colored band under the surface is the rock the state geologic map shows at the surface, not a picture of what lies beneath.

Rock at the surface along the line

Quaternary alluvium and marine deposits

Coarse-detrital. Age: Pleistocene to Holocene, less than 2.6 million years old. About 11 mi of the line.

Tertiary volcanic flow rocks, unit 17 (Cascade Range)

Andesite, basalt. Age: Late Oligocene to Pleistocene, 2 to 24 million years old. About 8 mi of the line.

Plio-Pleistocene and Pliocene loosely consolidated deposits

Sandstone, conglomerate. Age: Miocene to Pleistocene, less than 23 million years old. About 3 mi of the line.

Quaternary volcanic flow rocks, unit 1 (Cascade Volcanic Field)

Andesite, basalt. Age: Late Pliocene to Pleistocene, less than 3.6 million years old. About 1 mi of the line.

From the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation (Horton and others, 2017), the states’ geologic maps joined at a common scale.

Heights from Copernicus GLO-90 (a surface model: it includes buildings and tree canopy); summits from USGS GNIS; rivers from USGS NHDPlus HR; rock from the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation.

MILE3
THE WATER

Where Likely’s rain goes

A raindrop that lands in Likely reaches San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean by way of Dry Creek, the South Fork Pit, the Pit and the Sacramento: about 530 river miles.

THE WAY DOWN, TO SCALE
Likely≈ 530 mi · San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean
FROM THE CENTER OF LIKELY ≈ 530 mi to San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean Dry Creek → South Fork Pit → Pit → Sacramento

310 miles of the trip are on the Sacramento.

Traced down the USGS NHDPlus V2.1 river network from the Census center point of Likely; river miles along the main stem, rounded.

MILE5
THE ALMANAC

Likely’s year

1991–2020 normals · records since 1948 · Jess Valley, 11 mi east-northeast

Likely has a dry-summer warm-summer continental climate. Summer afternoons average 84° in July; winter nights fall to about 20° in December. A normal year brings about 82 inches of snow; with the rain, that comes to about 19 inches of water.

42°21°45°21°49°24°55°27°64°34°74°40°84°47°84°46°77°39°65°31°51°25°42°20° JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC 12 TODAY LIKELY 18.9 in rain and snowmelt
Normal high to low, by month Record high to low, by day Rain by month Freezing
July, average84° / 47°high / low, the warmest month
December, average42° / 20°high / low, the coldest month
Rain and melted snow18.9 inwettest months: May and December
Snow a year82.0 insnowiest: December
Hottest on record105°FAugust 5, 1972
Coldest on record−33°FJanuary 22, 1962
Wettest day on record2.83 inJune 6, 1993
Snowiest day on record14.0 inDecember 22, 2015
Climate typeDry-summer warm-summer continentalKöppen Dsb

AROUND THE RING

1Lows below freezingOct. 9 to May 7; normal lows fall below 32°
2Wettest stretchMarch through May: 7.0 of the year’s 18.9 inches
NOVEMBER 14 IN THE RECORD

On November 14 Likely normally reaches 52° and falls to 26°. The record high is 71°, in 1999; the record low 1°, in 1978. The most rain on this date, 1.65 in, fell in 1957.

MONTH BY MONTH
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Normal high42°45°49°55°64°74°84°84°77°65°51°42°
Normal low21°21°24°27°34°40°47°46°39°31°25°20°
Rain and melt, in1.931.561.852.382.771.530.430.380.581.151.902.41
Snow, inches12.58.714.514.44.20.40.00.00.12.98.116.2
Record high69° (2015)72° (2026)79° (2026)81° (2009)89° (1986)96° (2015)102° (2002)105° (1972)97° (2022)91° (2010)78° (2008)67° (1957)
Record low−33° (1962)−28° (1990)−7° (1971)5° (1975)15° (1994)18° (1995)19° (1995)27° (1959)18° (1950)3° (1971)−8° (2010)−28° (1972)

Normals 1991–2020 and records since 1948 at Jess Valley, 11 miles east-northeast, 870 ft higher. NOAA, through RCC-ACIS.

MILE7
ON THE NETWORK

Around Likely on the Forecast Network

Neighboring plates

Redding CA · 108 MI 108 miles southwest Reno NV · 121 MI 121 miles south Sparks NV · 121 MI 121 miles south Medford OR · 143 MI 143 miles northwest
FORECASTCITY
Map of Likely, California. Explore the plate
CALIFORNIA · MODOC

Likely

58 people, 4,450 ft above sea level in Modoc County.

4,450 ftElevation
58People
1 sq miLand
Sunny 49°
SunnyDew point 31°
1

Today in Likely

NEXT 15 HOURS
Now partly cloudy day 46° 0%
6p mostly cloudy night 41° 0%
9p mostly cloudy night 39° 0%
12a mostly cloudy night 38° 0%
3a mostly cloudy night 36° 1%
6a mostly cloudy night 35° 7%
Mostly cloudy
NEXT RAINTomorrow about 11 AM · 40%
→
Sat0%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
26
46
A
Sun90%
Showers likely Showers likely
25
49
B
Mon80%
Showers likely Showers likely
16
44
B
Tue10%
Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
19
43
B
Wed80%
Showers likely Showers likely
18
42
A
Thu60%
Showers likely Showers likely
15
41
C
Fri20%
Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
14
40
C
Letters show how sure the forecast is: A, models agree; B, some spread; C, check back. Sample data.
THIS WEEK IN 2008 · NOV. 17, 2008

78°, the hottest this week of the year has been since 1948.

2

What Likely stands on

Likely’s center stands about 4,450 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 4,390 ft to 4,930 ft, a difference of 540 ft: hilly country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is Bald Mountain, about 7,680 ft, 14 miles east.

Likely, south to north Likely4,450 ftTule Mountain7,070 ftSouth Fork Pit Riverabout 4,360 ft ← SN → 24 miles through the town center; vertical exaggeration about 14×. Colors: rock at the surface.
Elevation, center4,450 ft
Within 3 miles4,390 to 4,930 ft
Lie of the landHilly (540 ft of relief)
High point nearbyBald Mountain, 7,680 ft, 14 mi east
Rock at the surfaceQuaternary alluvium and marine deposits
Its agePleistocene to Holocene, less than 2.6 million years old
5

Likely’s year

Likely has a dry-summer warm-summer continental climate. Summer afternoons average 84° in July; winter nights fall to about 20° in December. A normal year brings about 82 inches of snow; with the rain, that comes to about 19 inches of water.

JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC 12 18.9 in
July, average84° / 47° · high / low, the warmest month
December, average42° / 20° · high / low, the coldest month
Rain and melted snow18.9 in · wettest months: May and December
Snow a year82.0 in · snowiest: December
Hottest on record105°F · August 5, 1972
Coldest on record−33°F · January 22, 1962
Wettest day on record2.83 in · June 6, 1993
Snowiest day on record14.0 in · December 22, 2015
Climate typeDry-summer warm-summer continental · Köppen Dsb
1Lows below freezing · Oct. 9 to May 7; normal lows fall below 32°
2Wettest stretch · March through May: 7.0 of the year’s 18.9 inches
NOVEMBER 14 IN THE RECORD

On November 14 Likely normally reaches 52° and falls to 26°. The record high is 71°, in 1999; the record low 1°, in 1978. The most rain on this date, 1.65 in, fell in 1957.

Normals 1991–2020 and records since 1948 at Jess Valley, 11 miles east-northeast, 870 ft higher. NOAA, through RCC-ACIS.
3

Where the rain goes

≈ 530 mito the PacificDry Creek → South Fork Pit → Pit → Sacramento

A raindrop that lands in Likely reaches San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean by way of Dry Creek, the South Fork Pit, the Pit and the Sacramento: about 530 river miles.

310 miles of the trip are on the Sacramento.