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Shaded-relief map of Chance, Oklahoma: rivers, roads, the city limits and where the water drains.
OKLAHOMA · ADAIR COUNTY

Chance

215 people, 1,210 ft above sea level in Adair County.

1,210 ftElevation, city center
215People, 2024 estimate
6 sq miLand area
Clear 43°
Clear now Dew point 26° · S 6 mph · high 45°
City of Chance River Interstate 2 miles
Explore the plate Order a print

The Chance plate. Relief from Copernicus GLO-30; rivers and lakes from USGS NHD; watersheds from the USGS Watershed Boundary Dataset; roads and city limits from Census TIGER 2024.

MILE1
TODAY

Today in Chance

NWS forecast and National Blend of Models · updated 5:00 PM CST
RIGHT NOW Smith Field Airport (KSLG) · 5:56 PM
Clear
43° Clear Feels like 39° · high of 45° near 6 PM
WindS 6 mphno gusts
Humidity51%rising to 82% by morning
Pressure30.21 in →steady
Visibility9 mihazy
CloudsClear
UV index—no forecast
Dew point 26° · Dry39° by Tuesday: more humid
DryComfortableStickyMuggyOppressive
NEXT RAIN
Clear
Not this weeknone in the forecast for a week
LIKELY AMOUNT—nothing expected
LAST RAINNov. 30.45 in · 11 dry days
ALERTS & OUTLOOKS
No watches or warnings for Adair County
NWS Tulsa and the Storm Prediction Center · checked 6:20 PM
SUN & MOON
↑ 6:54 AM5:12 PM ↓
10 h 17 m of daylight, 2 minutes less than yesterday
Waxing crescent, 27% lit. Next full moon: Nov. 24.
AIR & POLLEN
31
GOODAir quality index · ozone
No pollen source yet.

The next three days, hour by hour

Sky: clear, cloudy, night Rain likely National Blend of Models
SATURDAY, NOV. 14
SUNDAY, NOV. 15
MONDAY, NOV. 16
TUESDAY, NOV. 17
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
mostly clear night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
partly cloudy day
partly cloudy day
mostly sunny
partly cloudy day
partly cloudy night
mostly clear night
mostly clear night
mostly clear night
clear day
clear day
clear day
clear day
clear night
clear night
clear night
clear night
clear day
clear day
clear day
clear day
TEMPERATURE °F
45°
35°
55°
33°
58°
36°
CHANCE OF RAIN
50%
WIND, MPH
6
6
6
6
7
9
8
6
3
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
7
9
8
HOW IT FEELS · DEW POINT
Dry: dew points 27 to 39°

The next seven days, and how sure we are

Forecast, with the range 8 in 10 ensemble members agree on Normal, about 80° / 62°
SAT Nov. 14 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
45° 34°
0% rain — ESE 6 A
SUN Nov. 15 Partly cloudy; warmer Partly cloudy; warmer
55° 32°
0% rain — ESE 8 B
MON Nov. 16 Sunny Sunny
59° 34°
0% rain — ESE 2 B
TUE Nov. 17 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
62° 40°
0% rain — SSE 7 B
WED Nov. 18 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
65° 50°
20% rain — S 9 B
THU Nov. 19 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
67° 52°
20% rain — S 6 C
FRI Nov. 20 Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
70° 54°
10% rain — SSE 10 B
How sure are we? AModels agree: highs within 4° BSome spread: within 8° CWide spread: check back
Range from the National Blend of Models percentiles · graded on Forecast Scores
AIR MAIL

Where today’s air came from

The air arriving over Chance about 5,000 feet above the ground was over Texas three days ago, and over the Ozarks a day ago, about 840 miles back along its path. Most of the nine paths traced from around the city agree. It rose from near the ground on the way. Near the ground the air came from Texas; at 10,000 feet, from the northern Rockies. Traced back 72 hours through NOAA’s hourly RAP analyses, nine paths at each of three heights.

MILE2
THE GROUND

What Chance stands on

Chance’s center stands about 1,210 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 970 ft to 1,250 ft, a difference of 280 ft: rolling country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is Weddington Mountain, about 1,600 ft, 13 miles east.

Under the town center the state geologic map shows Keokuk and Reeds Spring Formations and St. Joe Group (chert, limestone), from the Carboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old.

The section below crosses 7 rock units mapped at the surface.

Oaks to Summers, cut in half

A section northwest to southeast, 24 miles through the town center
750 ft1,000 ft1,250 ft1,500 ft CHANCE1,210 ftIllinois Riverabout 900 ftBallard Creekabout 1,050 ftBates Mountain1,430 ftBell Mountain1,480 ft ← NW · OaksSummers · SE →

Heights every 0.1 mile from the Copernicus GLO-90 surface model; vertical exaggeration about 25×. The colored band under the surface is the rock the state geologic map shows at the surface, not a picture of what lies beneath.

Rock at the surface along the line

Keokuk and Reeds Spring Formations and St. Joe Group

Chert, limestone. Age: Carboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old. About 16 mi of the line.

Pitkin Limestone, Fayetteville Shale (including the Wedington Sandstone member), and Batesville Sandstone (including the Hindsville Limestone Member)

Sandstone, shale, limestone. Age: Carboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old. About 4 mi of the line.

Chattanooga + Fernvale + Fite + Tyner + Burgen + Cotter Formations

Shale, limestone, dolostone. Age: Early Ordovician to Carboniferous, 324 to 487 million years old. About 2 mi of the line.

Boone Formation

Limestone. Age: Carboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old. About 1 mi of the line.

Terrace Deposits

Coarse-detrital, fine-detrital. Age: Pleistocene, less than 2.6 million years old. About 1 mi of the line.

Pitkin + Fayetteville + Batesville + Hindsville + Moorefield Formations

Limestone, shale. Age: Carboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old. About 0.5 mi of the line.

From the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation (Horton and others, 2017), the states’ geologic maps joined at a common scale. 1 smaller unit along the line are not listed.

Heights from Copernicus GLO-90 (a surface model: it includes buildings and tree canopy); summits from USGS GNIS; rivers from USGS NHDPlus HR; rock from the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation.

MILE3
THE WATER

Where Chance’s rain goes

A raindrop that lands in Chance reaches the Gulf of America by way of Tyner Creek, the Baron Fork, the Illinois, the Arkansas and the Mississippi: about 1,040 river miles.

THE WAY DOWN, TO SCALE
Chance≈ 1,040 mi · the Gulf of America
FROM THE CENTER OF CHANCE ≈ 1,040 mi to the Gulf of America Tyner Creek → Baron Fork → Illinois → Arkansas → Mississippi

Lakes on the way: Murray Lake, Tenkiller Ferry Lake and Ozark Lake.

600 miles of the trip are on the Mississippi.

Traced down the USGS NHDPlus V2.1 river network from the Census center point of Chance; river miles along the main stem, rounded.

MILE7
ON THE NETWORK

Around Chance on the Forecast Network

Neighboring plates

Fayetteville AR · 27 MI 27 miles east Springdale AR · 29 MI 29 miles east Tulsa OK · 70 MI 70 miles west Little Rock AR · 159 MI 159 miles southeast Oklahoma City OK · 166 MI 166 miles west Wichita KS · 187 MI 187 miles northwest
FORECASTCITY
Map of Chance, Oklahoma. Explore the plate
OKLAHOMA · ADAIR

Chance

215 people, 1,210 ft above sea level in Adair County.

1,210 ftElevation
215People
6 sq miLand
Clear 43°
ClearDew point 26°
1

Today in Chance

NEXT 15 HOURS
Now mostly clear night 45° 0%
9p partly cloudy night 39° 0%
12a mostly cloudy night 37° 0%
3a mostly cloudy night 36° 1%
6a partly cloudy night 36° 0%
9a partly cloudy day 44° 1%
Clear
NEXT RAINNone this week
→
Sat0%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
34
45
A
Sun0%
Partly cloudy; warmer Partly cloudy; warmer
32
55
B
Mon0%
Sunny Sunny
34
59
B
Tue0%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
40
62
B
Wed20%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
50
65
B
Thu20%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
52
67
C
Fri10%
Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
54
70
B
Letters show how sure the forecast is: A, models agree; B, some spread; C, check back. Sample data.
2

What Chance stands on

Chance’s center stands about 1,210 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 970 ft to 1,250 ft, a difference of 280 ft: rolling country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is Weddington Mountain, about 1,600 ft, 13 miles east.

Chance, northwest to southeast Chance1,210 ftIllinois Riverabout 900 ftBallard Creekabout 1,050 ftBates Mountain1,430 ft ← NWSE → 24 miles through the town center; vertical exaggeration about 48×. Colors: rock at the surface.
Elevation, center1,210 ft
Within 3 miles970 to 1,250 ft
Lie of the landRolling (280 ft of relief)
High point nearbyWeddington Mountain, 1,600 ft, 13 mi east
Rock at the surfaceKeokuk and Reeds Spring Formations and St. Joe Group
Its ageCarboniferous, 324 to 359 million years old
3

Where the rain goes

≈ 1,040 mito the Gulf of AmericaTyner Creek → Baron Fork → Illinois → Arkansas → Mississippi

A raindrop that lands in Chance reaches the Gulf of America by way of Tyner Creek, the Baron Fork, the Illinois, the Arkansas and the Mississippi: about 1,040 river miles.

Lakes on the way: Murray Lake, Tenkiller Ferry Lake and Ozark Lake.

600 miles of the trip are on the Mississippi.