FORECAST CITY
Sign in
Shaded-relief map of Aurora, New York: rivers, roads, the city limits and where the water drains.
NEW YORK · ERIE COUNTY

Aurora

13,902 people, 1,020 ft above sea level in Erie County.

1,020 ftElevation, city center
13,902People, 2024 estimate
36 sq miLand area
Sunny 40°
Sunny now Dew point 35° · WNW 13 mph · high 41°
City of Aurora River Interstate 2 miles
Explore the plate Order a print

The Aurora plate. Relief from Copernicus GLO-30; rivers and lakes from USGS NHD; watersheds from the USGS Watershed Boundary Dataset; roads and city limits from Census TIGER 2024.

MILE1
TODAY

Today in Aurora

NWS forecast and National Blend of Models · updated 1:00 PM EST
RIGHT NOW Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF) · 2:54 PM
Sunny
40° Sunny Feels like 33° · high of 41° near 5 PM
WindWNW 13 mphno gusts
Humidity83%rising to 96% by morning
Pressure29.89 in →steady
Visibility10 mihaze-free
CloudsClear
UV index—no forecast
Dew point 35° · Dryabout the same for three days
DryComfortableStickyMuggyOppressive
NEXT RAIN
Rain
Tonight, about 7 PMin about 4 hours · 36% chance · rain
LIKELY AMOUNT—amounts come within 3 days
LAST RAINNov. 120.04 in · 2 dry days
ALERTS & OUTLOOKS
No watches or warnings for Erie County
NWS Buffalo and the Storm Prediction Center · checked 3:17 PM
SUN & MOON
↑ 7:05 AM4:53 PM ↓
9 h 48 m of daylight, 2 minutes less than yesterday
Waxing crescent, 25% lit. Next full moon: Nov. 24.
AIR & POLLEN
19
GOODAir quality index · ozone
Tomorrow: 22, good. No pollen source yet.

The next three days, hour by hour

Sky: clear, cloudy, night Rain likely National Blend of Models
SATURDAY, NOV. 14
SUNDAY, NOV. 15
MONDAY, NOV. 16
TUESDAY, NOV. 17
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
3p
6p
9p
Mid
3a
6a
9a
Noon
overcast
rain
mostly cloudy night
overcast
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy night
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
mostly cloudy day
partly cloudy day
partly cloudy night
mostly clear night
mostly clear night
mostly clear night
partly cloudy day
mostly sunny
mostly sunny
TEMPERATURE °F
40°
35°
42°
36°
46°
37°
CHANCE OF RAIN
36% · 0.01 in Saturday evening 50%
WIND, MPH
13
12
10
8
8
7
10
10
9
7
6
5
5
6
8
10
9
9
8
7
8
9
14
20
HOW IT FEELS · DEW POINT
Dry: dew points 31 to 39°

The next seven days, and how sure we are

Forecast, with the range 8 in 10 ensemble members agree on Normal, about 48° / 35°
SAT Nov. 14 Chance of showers Chance of showers
41° 35°
40% rain — NW 14 A
SUN Nov. 15 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
44° 36°
20% rain — NNW 9 A
MON Nov. 16 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
48° 37°
0% rain — W 9 B
TUE Nov. 17 Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
53° 40°
0% rain — SW 13 A
WED Nov. 18 Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
54° 41°
0% rain — SW 10 B
THU Nov. 19 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
57° 46°
0% rain — SW 12 B
FRI Nov. 20 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
57° 43°
0% rain — WSW 6 B
How sure are we? AModels agree: highs within 4° BSome spread: within 8° CWide spread: check back
Range from the National Blend of Models percentiles · graded on Forecast Scores
AIR MAIL

Where today’s air came from

The air arriving over Aurora about 5,000 feet above the ground was over Canada three days ago, and over Ontario a day ago, about 2,530 miles back along its path. It has stayed over land, which is why it feels dry. Traced back 72 hours through NOAA’s hourly RAP analyses and the GFS beyond them, nine paths at each of three heights.

THIS WEEK, SIX YEARS AGO Nov. 11, 2020

The hottest this week has been

78° on Nov. 11, 2020, the hottest reading for this week of the year since 1948. Next is 72° in 2012.

72°
78°
20122020
Source: NOAA RCC-ACIS, the Wales record since 1948.
MILE2
THE GROUND

What Aurora stands on

Aurora’s center stands about 1,020 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 850 ft to 1,380 ft, a difference of 530 ft: hilly country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is South Hill, about 1,820 ft, 10 miles south.

Under the town center the state geologic map shows Angola and Rhinestreet Shales, from the Late Devonian, 359 to 384 million years old.

The section below crosses 8 rock units mapped at the surface.

Sardinia to Cheektowaga, cut in half

A section south to north, 24 miles through the town center
500 ft1,000 ft1,500 ft AURORA1,020 ftHigh point of the line1,810 ftCazenovia Creekabout 720 ftCheektowaga630 ft ← S · SardiniaCheektowaga · N →

Heights every 0.1 mile from the Copernicus GLO-90 surface model; vertical exaggeration about 16×. The colored band under the surface is the rock the state geologic map shows at the surface, not a picture of what lies beneath.

Rock at the surface along the line

Machias Formation

Shale, siltstone, sandstone. Age: Late Devonian, 359 to 384 million years old. About 11 mi of the line.

Angola and Rhinestreet Shales

Shale. Age: Late Devonian, 359 to 384 million years old. About 6 mi of the line.

Skaneateles Formation

Shale. Age: Middle Devonian, 384 to 394 million years old. About 2 mi of the line.

Ludlowville Formation

Shale, limestone. Age: Middle Devonian, 384 to 388 million years old. About 2 mi of the line.

Moscow Formation

Shale. Age: Middle Devonian, 384 to 388 million years old. About 1 mi of the line.

Marcellus Formation

Black-shale. Age: Middle Devonian, 388 to 394 million years old. About 0.9 mi of the line.

From the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation (Horton and others, 2017), the states’ geologic maps joined at a common scale. 2 smaller units along the line are not listed.

Heights from Copernicus GLO-90 (a surface model: it includes buildings and tree canopy); summits from USGS GNIS; rivers from USGS NHDPlus HR; rock from the USGS State Geologic Map Compilation.

MILE3
THE WATER

Where Aurora’s rain goes

A raindrop that lands in Aurora reaches Lake Erie by way of West Branch Cazenovia Creek, Cazenovia Creek and the Buffalo: about 25 river miles. From there it moves on through the Great Lakes, over Niagara Falls and down the St. Lawrence to the Atlantic.

THE WAY DOWN, TO SCALE
Aurora≈ 25 mi · Lake Erie
FROM THE CENTER OF AURORA ≈ 25 mi to Lake Erie and the St. Lawrence West Branch Cazenovia Creek → Cazenovia Creek → Buffalo

Traced down the USGS NHDPlus V2.1 river network from the Census center point of Aurora; river miles along the main stem, rounded.

MILE5
THE ALMANAC

Aurora’s year

1991–2020 normals · records since 1948 · Wales, 5 mi east-southeast

Aurora has a warm-summer humid continental climate. Summer afternoons average 79° in July; winter nights fall to about 15° in January. A normal year brings about 109 inches of snow; with the rain, that comes to about 44 inches of water.

32°15°33°15°42°22°55°33°67°44°75°54°79°58°78°57°72°50°60°40°47°31°37°22° JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC 123 TODAY AURORA 44.1 in rain and snowmelt
Normal high to low, by month Record high to low, by day Rain by month Freezing
July, average79° / 58°high / low, the warmest month
January, average32° / 15°high / low, the coldest month
Rain and melted snow44.1 inwettest months: October and June
Snow a year109.3 insnowiest: January
Hottest on record95°FJuly 17, 2022
Coldest on record−19°FFebruary 15, 2016
Wettest day on record3.42 inJune 23, 1987
Snowiest day on record29.5 inNovember 21, 2014
90° days a year1on average, 1991–2020
Nights at or below 32°151and 56 days that stay below freezing
Climate typeWarm-summer humid continentalKöppen Dfb

AROUND THE RING

1Freeze seasonfrom the first fall freeze, about Oct. 9, to the last in spring, about May 13 (median dates)
2Highs below freezingJan. 5 to Feb. 12; normal highs stay below 32°
3Lows below freezingNov. 10 to April 14; normal lows fall below 32°
NOVEMBER 14 IN THE RECORD

On November 14 Aurora normally reaches 48° and falls to 31°. The record high is 67°, in 2010; the record low 8°, in 2019. The most rain on this date, 0.66 in, fell in 1992.

MONTH BY MONTH
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Normal high32°33°42°55°67°75°79°78°72°60°47°37°
Normal low15°15°22°33°44°54°58°57°50°40°31°22°
Rain and melt, in3.562.653.163.583.504.153.943.483.934.184.053.90
Snow, inches32.919.917.03.60.00.00.00.00.00.29.126.6
Record high66° (2020)72° (2017)82° (1990)89° (1990)92° (2020)92° (2024)95° (2022)94° (2021)90° (2023)85° (2023)79° (2022)68° (2006)
Record low−18° (2004)−19° (2016)−12° (1999)9° (2016)25° (2020)31° (1988)40° (2001)35° (1986)26° (1991)21° (2002)0° (2018)−19° (1988)

Normals 1991–2020 and records since 1948 at Wales, 5 miles east-southeast, 100 ft higher. NOAA, through RCC-ACIS.

MILE7
ON THE NETWORK

Around Aurora on the Forecast Network

Neighboring plates

Buffalo NY · 15 MI 15 miles northwest Amherst NY · 20 MI 20 miles north Greece NY · 59 MI 59 miles northeast Rochester NY · 60 MI 60 miles northeast Erie PA · 85 MI 85 miles southwest Syracuse NY · 128 MI 128 miles east
FORECASTCITY
Map of Aurora, New York. Explore the plate
NEW YORK · ERIE

Aurora

13,902 people, 1,020 ft above sea level in Erie County.

1,020 ftElevation
13,902People
36 sq miLand
Sunny 40°
SunnyDew point 35°
1

Today in Aurora

NEXT 15 HOURS
Now mostly cloudy day 40° 18%
6p mostly cloudy night 40° 25%
9p mostly cloudy night 39° 22%
12a mostly cloudy night 37° 8%
3a mostly cloudy night 36° 3%
6a mostly cloudy night 35° 8%
Rain
NEXT RAINTonight about 7 PM · 36%
→
Sat40%
Chance of showers Chance of showers
35
41
A
Sun20%
Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
36
44
A
Mon0%
Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
37
48
B
Tue0%
Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
40
53
A
Wed0%
Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
41
54
B
Thu0%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
46
57
B
Fri0%
Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
43
57
B
Letters show how sure the forecast is: A, models agree; B, some spread; C, check back. Sample data.
THIS WEEK, SIX YEARS AGO · NOV. 11, 2020

78°, the hottest this week of the year has been since 1948.

2

What Aurora stands on

Aurora’s center stands about 1,020 ft above sea level. Within three miles the land runs from 850 ft to 1,380 ft, a difference of 530 ft: hilly country. The highest named summit within 15 miles is South Hill, about 1,820 ft, 10 miles south.

Aurora, south to north Aurora1,020 ftCazenovia Creekabout 720 ft ← SN → 24 miles through the town center; vertical exaggeration about 31×. Colors: rock at the surface.
Elevation, center1,020 ft
Within 3 miles850 to 1,380 ft
Lie of the landHilly (530 ft of relief)
High point nearbySouth Hill, 1,820 ft, 10 mi south
Rock at the surfaceAngola and Rhinestreet Shales
Its ageLate Devonian, 359 to 384 million years old
5

Aurora’s year

Aurora has a warm-summer humid continental climate. Summer afternoons average 79° in July; winter nights fall to about 15° in January. A normal year brings about 109 inches of snow; with the rain, that comes to about 44 inches of water.

JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC 123 44.1 in
July, average79° / 58° · high / low, the warmest month
January, average32° / 15° · high / low, the coldest month
Rain and melted snow44.1 in · wettest months: October and June
Snow a year109.3 in · snowiest: January
Hottest on record95°F · July 17, 2022
Coldest on record−19°F · February 15, 2016
Wettest day on record3.42 in · June 23, 1987
Snowiest day on record29.5 in · November 21, 2014
90° days a year1 · on average, 1991–2020
Nights at or below 32°151 · and 56 days that stay below freezing
Climate typeWarm-summer humid continental · Köppen Dfb
1Freeze season · from the first fall freeze, about Oct. 9, to the last in spring, about May 13 (median dates)
2Highs below freezing · Jan. 5 to Feb. 12; normal highs stay below 32°
3Lows below freezing · Nov. 10 to April 14; normal lows fall below 32°
NOVEMBER 14 IN THE RECORD

On November 14 Aurora normally reaches 48° and falls to 31°. The record high is 67°, in 2010; the record low 8°, in 2019. The most rain on this date, 0.66 in, fell in 1992.

Normals 1991–2020 and records since 1948 at Wales, 5 miles east-southeast, 100 ft higher. NOAA, through RCC-ACIS.
3

Where the rain goes

≈ 25 mito Lake Erie and the St. LawrenceWest Branch Cazenovia Creek → Cazenovia Creek → Buffalo

A raindrop that lands in Aurora reaches Lake Erie by way of West Branch Cazenovia Creek, Cazenovia Creek and the Buffalo: about 25 river miles. From there it moves on through the Great Lakes, over Niagara Falls and down the St. Lawrence to the Atlantic.